The NFL playoffs are one of the most exciting times of the year for football fans. With the best teams in the league competing for a shot at the Super Bowl, every game is high-stakes and intense. But understanding the intricacies of the playoff system and the odds of each team making it to the final game can be daunting.
In this article, we will break down the NFL playoffs and provide a comprehensive guide to understanding the odds to give you a better position when trying to make the most of early odds released for your favorite college teams, whose star players could well go on to take part in the NFL playoffs in the future, just like former Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence did this year with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Structure of the playoffs
The NFL playoffs consist of a total of 12 teams, six from each conference. The playoffs are structured in a single-elimination tournament, meaning that a team is eliminated from the playoffs as soon as they lose a game. The top two teams from each conference receive a bye in the first round, meaning they automatically advance to the Divisional Round without playing a game.
The first round of the playoffs is known as the Wild Card round, where the third-seeded team hosts the sixth-seeded team, and the fourth-seeded team hosts the fifth-seeded team. The winners of these games advance to the Divisional Round to face the top-seeded team in their conference, while the two teams with byes automatically advance to this round.
The winners of the Divisional Round games advance to the Conference Championship games, where the top two teams from each conference compete for a spot in the Super Bowl. The winner of each conference championship game advances to the Super Bowl, where they compete for the championship.
The seeds
The seeding of the playoff teams is determined by their regular season record. The top four teams in each conference are seeded based on their win-loss-tie record, with the team with the best record getting the #1 seed, the team with the second-best record getting the #2 seed, and so on. In the event of a tie, tiebreakers are used to determine the seeding. The tiebreakers used are as follows:
- Head-to-head record
- Record within the conference
- Record in common games
- Strength of victory
- Strength of schedule
- Best net points in conference games
- Best net points in all games
- Best net touchdowns in all games
- Coin toss
Understanding the odds
Once the seeding is determined, the odds of each team winning their playoff games are calculated by oddsmakers. Oddsmakers are people who work for sportsbooks and use statistical analysis, historical data, and other factors to determine the probability of a given outcome. They then set a line, or point spread, for each game, which indicates the favorite and the underdog.
For example, let’s say the New England Patriots are playing the Miami Dolphins in the Wild Card round, and the Patriots are favored to win by 7 points. This means that the Patriots are the favorite and must win by more than 7 points for someone who bets on them to win. If the Patriots win by exactly 7 points, it’s a push, and nobody wins or loses. If the Patriots win by fewer than 7 points or lose outright, those who bet on the Dolphins will win.
It’s important to note that the odds are not always a reflection of the true probability of a given outcome. Oddsmakers often set the line in such a way as to balance the amount of money bet on each team, which helps to ensure a profit for the sportsbook regardless of the outcome. As a result, the odds can be influenced by factors such as public perception, injuries, and other variables that may not be directly related to the teams’ actual abilities.
Making predictions
Despite the influence of the odds, it’s still possible to make informed predictions about the NFL playoffs based on a variety of factors. Here are a few things to consider when making your picks:
- Regular season performance: While the playoffs are a new season, regular season performance can be a good indicator of a team’s overall ability. Look for teams with strong records, especially against other playoff teams.
- Momentum: Teams that have been playing well leading up to the playoffs may be more likely to continue their success. Look for teams on winning streaks or with impressive recent victories.
- Matchups: Certain teams may match up well against others
Regular season record
The regular-season record is the most significant factor in determining a team’s playoff odds. The teams with the best records in each conference receive the top two seeds and a bye in the first round of the playoffs. These teams have a significant advantage over the other teams in the playoffs, as they have an extra week to rest and prepare for their next game.
Strength of schedule
The strength of the schedule is another important factor in determining playoff odds. A team’s strength of schedule is calculated by adding up the records of all the teams they have played during the regular season. A team with a strong schedule has played more games against high-quality opponents and is considered to be battle-tested. A team with a weak schedule may have a good record but may not be as prepared for the challenges of the playoffs.
Injuries
Injuries can have a significant impact on a team’s playoff chances. A team that loses a key player to injury may struggle to replace their star player, which could hinder their ability to win games in the playoffs. Conversely, a team that gets healthy at the right time can gain momentum and make a deep playoff run.
Momentum
Momentum is an intangible factor that can play a significant role in a team’s playoff success. A team that is playing well heading into the playoffs can ride that momentum to a deep playoff run. Conversely, a team that is struggling heading into the playoffs may struggle to turn things around.
Favorites and underdogs
In the NFL playoffs, there are typically a few teams that are considered favorites to win it all and a few teams that are considered underdogs. The favorites are the teams with the best regular season records, the strongest strength of schedule, and the fewest injuries. The underdogs are typically teams that snuck into the playoffs with weaker records but may have gained momentum late in the season.